The BBC is trailing interesting research from its new series of The Truth About Property that suggests that not only are more people "crash-proof" than in the early 1990s (it would take a house price drop of 56% to put the average borrower into negative equity), but that a house price crash would be far from entirely unwelcome, even among the property-owning class. People, apparently, are seeing a fall in values as an opportunity to trade up for less. The last series of this show was excellent, the Rat and Mouse has high hopes for series two, starting tonight, at 8pm, on BBC 2.

Technorati Tags: property, property TV, real estate

According to Hamptons estate agents, properties in the £1m region have been hit the hardest by the slump, with prices falling by as much as 15% since September 2007. Only the super-prime sector - propped up by overseas buyers - continues to thrive. More here.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

It's the one the spread-betters and other gamblers go by, and it's reporting a 1.3% fall in April, knocking 4.2% off the value of the average home since the beginning of the year. Significantly, it's the latest in a series of indices that put the annual inflation figure in the red. According to Halifax, it's a 0.9% fall April-to-April. Read the actual release (in pdf) here.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

Nationwide report a six monthly fall (1.1% in April), leaving their annual inflation figure in the red for the first time to the tune of 1%.

Market report 2 - Land Registry [April 28, 2008]
Market report - Hometrack [April 28, 2008]

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... where they're warning of a 25% house price crash, between now and the beginning of 2010. Savills' Yolande Barnes is, however, also pointing out that it's in the power of the lenders to turn this into a 6% dip, by lending money once again. If you're shopping in the £5m+ bracket (see below) you don't need to worry too much.

Technorati Tags: estate agents, real estate agents

And another fall. This time... 0.4% in March, and - remember - this one's based on completions. And there's significant variation within the figure. In Wales, it was a 2.2% fall; in the north east, a 2.4% rise. Prices rose in London, too, by 0.6%. Transactions - year-on-year - were down by a quarter. The annual rate of inflation dropped to 3.6%.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

April's not over, but Hometrack's figures are out, and they show a 0.6% fall in the month. But that's not as important as the annual figure, which slips into the red at -0.9%.

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Talking to Empire magazine:

"The natives of England are sort of being left behind because the big money came in and if it wanted something it bought it and made a bigger fortune doing so. And as anyone who has tried to buy a house in central London knows, it's almost impossible to do so unless you have 10 million quid."

I know... I know... tell me about it... less than ten million quid and it's a bloody Transit van and a matress. But what can you do? It's those Russian oligarchs and American pop stars. More here.

Technorati Tags: celebrity, London, property, real estate

You've got to hand it to Capital Economics, they really grasp the principle that if you predict something for long enough it's bound to happen. It's probably little comfort to anybody who took their predictions at face value during the last five years and put their own money in the position of CE's mouth... that could have turned out an expensive spread bet. Few would argue, though, that now's the time of the bear, and CE continue to ensure there's no bigger bear than them. They've cut there 2008/2009 forecasts... and are now expecting a fall in house prices of 8% in 2008 and 10% in 2009. More here.

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The Evening Standard reports on falling asking prices here and there across the capital, including many of the top postcodes. According to Rightmove figures:

Average asking prices in Kensington and Chelsea have fallen £33,000 to £1,458,558 - down more than 2.2 per cent between March and April.

Oddly, though, asking prices rose (by 3.8%) in Hackney.

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According to figures by Shelter, the average price paid for a home by a first-time buyer was £52,674 in 1997. In 2007, it was £159,494. The average weekly income of a UK family over the same period, up 53%. More here.

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He's quoted here predicting that current falls in the London market - not helped, he says, be a non-dom exodus - have already triggered 15% falls which won't be apparent for a few months... until the DCLG index, which reflects completion prices, shows up.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

It's a big one - 1.6% - and you can't argue with it, because the DCLG figure is based on completions. It leaves annual house price inflation at 6.7%. Interestingly - although not without precedent - flats led the falls (-2.9%), bungalows were least affected (-0.6%). Inevitably there was regional variation, too. In London, the annual inflation rate is up at 9.5%. Something scary's definitely happening in Northern Ireland's recently over-heated market, with the annual inflation figure falling from 8.4% in December to just 3.7%.

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The BBC are headlining the radio news with the RICS survey showing that members (qualified estate agents) are more bearish on house prices than ever. Seventy-eight and a half per cent reported a fall in house prices March, that's up from 65.7% in February, and it's the worst figure since RICS began the (dubious, in my opinion) index in 1978. In an accompanying statement, the RICS thank low supply for saving the market from an all-out crash.

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According to this, using spread betting on London house prices as an indicator, Cantor Spreadfair is predicting an 18% drop in London house prices by the end of 2010. The piece suggests (I think) Spreadfair's launching a new spread-betting opportunity based around punter confidence, and how it turns out compared to the Halifax index... betting on the betting. Can't find any mention of this over at their website, though.

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It's a 2.5% routing, to be precise... the biggest monthly fall since September 1992, leaving the annual inflation rate at 1.1%, the lowest in 12 years, and Q1 2008 levels down 1% on 2007 Q4. The Halifax analysts aren't, however, talking about readjusting their 2008 predictions of a "low single digit" fall. Chief economist Martin Ellis is quoted, thus:

Sound economic fundamentals are supporting house prices. A strong labour market, low interest rates and a shortage of new houses underpin housing valuations.

He doesn't mention the scarcity of loans or decent deals.

Broken down, London saw a price rise of 1.6%, the East Midlands a rise of 2.2%. West Midlands was battered -5%, Wales -4.7%. One statistical surprise, perhaps:

The average deposit put down by a first-time buyer (FTB) in 2007 (£34,381) represented 20% of the purchaser price compared with 12% in 1989. Only 5% of FTBs took out a loan of 100% or more of the purchase price in 2007 compared with 35% in 1990.

Read the actual report (in pdf), here.

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It's all about February's Land Registry figures, which show a fall in London house prices of 0.4%... the biggest drop since March 2005's -1.2%. Kensington & Chelsea, one of the biggest winners over the last two years, got the worst of it, with a 0.7% fall. More here.

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This time, it's Hometrack, reporting a 0.2% fall for March, leaving the annual rate of house price inflation, March-to-March, at just 0.4%. More here.

Market report - Nationwide, tide continues to turn [March 28, 2008]

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House prices made it onto the agenda-setting Today programme this morning, after the Nationwide published its March figures. It's a fall - honest - of 0.6%, leaving annual house price inflation at just 1.1%, it's lowest since March 1996. The most dramatic figure, though, comes by looking at the last five months... over that period, Nationwide is seeing a 2.9% fall. Read the actual report in pdf here, but be patient, as the press appear to be hitting the server right now.

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When the National Association of Estate Agents put out a press release yesterday informing us that softening house prices signaled a more favourable market for buyers, I thought the only striking thing about it was that anyone thought it needed saying in the first place. But the comments, at the bottom of this, did better... picking up on the idea of a "buyers' market", and pointing out how far we've come, and in what a strange direction, when average prices around the £200,000 are a playground for buyers:

Its not a buyers market at the moment, its no-ones market.

How on earth can anybody call this a buyer's market? The only people who can afford to buy are those who have already done very well out of rising prices and have the cash. First time buyers have been frozen out completely because of inability to secure a mortgage.

A Buyers market?
First time buyers are holding out for a price drop, or cant afford the current price levels.
Home movers have to sell existing house..
So who are the buyers who can afford this market?

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Numbers of unsold properties on estate agents' books are apparently at their highest level since Rightmove records begin... back in the Web1.0, Elvis in the charts (not kidding) days of 2002; and yet asking prices have risen by 0.8% in March. Rightmove estimates that prices have fallen 10% from their 2007 peak, and recommends vendors mix themselves a reality Martini, and chuck in a couple of green olives. (Just make sure you don't get those ones with anchovies in them by mistake... done that, not nice... )

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How do I know? Because an insurance company is about to launch a product which will pay out if your mortgage repayments rise as a result of base rate hikes. It's called MarketGuard, it's the first product of its kind, and it's due to launch in a couple of months. On the subject of hedging, MarketGuard gets a mention in this very interesting Guardian piece about Government plans to offer some kind of crazy hedge against house price falls. Not general house price falls. Just the kind that affect your house. Read this:

In the Housing Finance Review, a 93-page document issued with the Budget, the Treasury says it intends to investigate the possible development of insurance based on house price movements, which would be hedged against detailed house price indices. Such insurance would pay out if the value of a home declined by more than the value of equivalent property in the indices.

What the hell does that mean? And how the hell will that be possible, given that national indices reflect broad movements, not "equivalent" properties? Are there "equivalent" properties? How many "detailed house price indices" would you need? One for every street? And who needs such a product and why? I'm confused.

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RICS gloom levels reached record levels in February, equalled only by the great sigh of June 1990. There's more unsold stock in estate agents' windows than there's been for a decade. 64.1% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise in February, up from 54.7% in January, and the greatest percentage since June 1990, when the figure reached 64.5%. More here.

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Halifax is reporting a 0.3% fall in UK house prices in February, leaving the annual inflation figure at 4.2% (from 4.5% last month). Stay tuned for this afternoon's interest rate decision.

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According to Knight Frank, the index on London homes costing £2m+ rose 0.6% in February, leaving the annual rate of posh house price inflation way down at a disappointing 24% (I know!), its lowest level since September 2006. More here.

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It's a fourth monthly fall, according to Nationwide figures... this time, 0.5% for February, bringing the annual rate of inflation down to 2.7%. The last time Nationwide reported four months of falls was 2000. More here.

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The plan was to bring you one of those little jpeg representations of the front page that the Rat and Mouse is so fond of, but the front page repeatedly crashed my capture client. So I saved it as a pdf... a 60 page pdf. It's now clear that I'm not going to be able to bring you an image of the House Prices Will Never Crash front page, because it's just too big and too mad... but what follows are a few highlights.

It's a truly extraordinary creation. It includes dinner party dialogue in screenplay format celebrating house price hikes, predictions of stratospheric rises in property values pegged to the Olympics and lots of pictures of rockets. Most of all, it's about the sell-to-renters. It doesn't like them.

In fact, the website's so crazy...

... that it's tempting to wonder whether it's the work of a HousePriceCrash agent out to discredit the bulls.

But... there are videos, too... 140 in the last three weeks, none of which I feel like embedding in the Rat and Mouse, and some of which are entirely unacceptable. What's going on? I'm scared. Who's Bruno?

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate, Web

Good morning, and welcome to a new week. House prices have fallen again. This time... it's a February fall of 0.2%, according to Hometrack, leaving annual inflation at just 1.4%. The worst news is for vendors in a hurry... the average time taken to shift a property is up at 8.5 weeks, the longest since Hometrack began asking. More here.

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According to figures from Mouseprice, Kensington & Chelsea's glory days are over, and it's Courtenay Avenue, a road running parallel to The Bishop's Avenue, in Highgate that's now paved in the thickest gold and lined with the bushiest money trees. The average property price necessary to achieve this? Just £6.8m. Last year, the winner was Kensington Square, with an average price a whole 23% less than this year's... an example of what's happening in the prime-and-above market. Go here for some interesting analysis from Bloomberg.

Tumbleweed blowing down Millionaires' Row [February 18, 2008]

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

House prices are up 3.2% in February, according to Rightmove, following a reported fall of 0.8% in January. A recovery? Not necessarily, says Miles Shipside. More, courtesy of Citywire, here.

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Reports of the return of sell-to-rent began to appear toward the end of 2007, and over the weekend they made front page property news in the Observer. According to Rightmove research, the practice - selling, hopefully, at the top, renting for a while while prices drop, and then either buying back in further up the ladder or taking a profit - is picking up pace. The Rat and Mouse can only applaud bubble-sitters' courage. Few financial decisions are as risky, or real-world calculations as tricky... taking in the cost of storage, rents (which can go up and down), the costs of selling and buying, the value of time, inconvenience and risk, all multiplied by however long it might take for prices to start to drop and then assuming it's possible to buy in just before everybody else does. The chances of getting all this right are low, and the Rat and Mouse has seen shrewd people brought down by this tactic. Exciting, though. Best of luck.

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Reports of the return of sell-to-rent began to appear toward the end of 2007, and over the weekend they made front page property news in the Observer. According to Rightmove Findaproperty (apologies, see comments below) research, the practice - selling, hopefully, at the top, renting for a while while prices drop, and then either buying back in further up the ladder or taking a profit - is picking up pace. The Rat and Mouse can only applaud bubble-sitters' courage. Few financial decisions are as risky, or real-world calculations as tricky... taking in the cost of storage, rents (which can go up and down), the costs of selling and buying, the value of time, inconvenience and risk, all multiplied by however long it might take for prices to start to drop and then assuming it's possible to buy in just before everybody else does. The chances of getting all this right are low, and the Rat and Mouse has seen shrewd people brought down by this tactic. Exciting, though. Best of luck.

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Despite the scare stories circulating at the back end of last year, of residential auction houses deserted but for a couple of spectators and a handful of derelicts who've come in out the cold, the auctioneers kicking the tumbleweed... day one of the Allsop Residential Auction sounded like the old days. We've a report of a thousand people on the day, including first-time buyers, an 86% sale rate, and properties going for way above what must surely have been some conservative guide prices. Big sales included Flat 6, 21 De Vere Gardens (Kensington) which made £1.925m (guide price: £1.25m-£1.5m). Day two... February 18, Cumberland Hotel.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

That was Mervyn King talking at a press conference for the Inflation Report, yesterday. He pointed to what is surely any intelligent person's preferred option... static house prices gently shifting price to earnings ratios over the next five years. Interestingly, he also tackled the decoupling of lenders' rates and base rates, suggesting surprise only at people's surprise. Naturally, he said, lenders will want to rebuild margins. More here.

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An interesting Merryn newsletter, on developer scams, buy-to-let gullibility, the Batoum Gardens house (tasty) heading to auction and what a central London agent let drop recently:

One agent caught off his guard told me a few weeks ago that going on his experience prices are already off 10-15% in some areas.

It's an interesting read. Catch it here.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

The number of surveyors/agents reporting a fall beat the number reporting a rise by 54.7% You'd need to go back to 1992 to equal that. More here.

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It's tempting to apply screenwriter William Goldman's first rule of the film industry - "Nobody knows anything" - to the property market. In the red corner... HousePriceCrash and HousingPANIC accusing the mainstream media of talking up the market in order to service vested interests. In the blue corner... this morning's heroes, Assetz, now accusing the FT and the BBC of talking the very same market down. (In the middle, in a freshly starched white shirt, the Rat and Mouse... when I say break, then break...)

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What's all the excitement about? It's the Government's official completion figures for December... the figures that are based on somebody showing somebody else the money, rather than what a vendor dreams about getting or a number pulled out of an estate agent's watch pocket. And December's particularly interesting because - as far as the Rat and Mouse is concerned - it gives us that true 2008 house price inflation figures, which was... 9.1%. (We got there, by the way, after a December rise of 0.4%.) That 9.1% figure is down from a July peak of 12.3% and represent a year low; and the three-month figures (10%, from 10.5% in November) also suggest a softening market. Now, back to the 2007 predictions. The looked something like this:

Which just goes to show what an almost unimagined peak prices are currently teetering on. A couple of Decembers ago, the Rat and Mouse called the above list "a big bunch of bulls", and yet only the very, er, bullishest came close. Well done, Assetz, the entire Rat and Mouse staff will be raising a toast to you tonight, on expenses, at one of London's swankiest champagne bars. (To see what Assetz have predicted for 2008, go here.)

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According to new research by the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit buy-to-let investment has had only a 7% effect on house prices in the last five years, throwing into doubt the assumption that the availability of buy-to-let mortgages has been an important factor in first-time buyer misery. The major causes of rising house prices and unaffordability have, the report suggests, been rising interest rates and higher numbers of households. The research follows similar finding by Capital Economics. Furthermore, both CE and NHPAU (NUPOW!!) believe that buy-to-let has had a positive effect on the quality and quantity of available rented accommodation. You might not like it, but that's what they're saying. More here.

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London's £2.5m plus property sector has clearly been too busy test driving Astons and lighting Cohibas to hear the news about the housing slowdown. According to Knight Frank, it saw a rise of 1.1% in January, with the market being led from the top... at £10m or more. Read more, here.

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No shift at all in January, according to the Halifax, leaving the annual rate of house price inflation at 4.5%. More here.

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It's a fall of 0.1% in January, the Nationwide index's third consecutive monthly fall, bringing annual inflation to 4.2% (from 4.8% in December)... the lowest figure since December 2005. This brings the all important three month figure into the red... a 0.3% fall. An interest rate cut next week? Here's a link to the actual, factual report from Nationwide (pdf). Scroll down the graphs. The Average UK House Price graph, plotted over ten years, shows just how serious a crash would be necessary to put a dent in the (theoretical) "profits" of anybody who's held property for five years or more. The Annual % Change in House Prices graph below it is fascinating because it shows how much volatility the market can take before producing annual losses. Note how, in September 05, the annual percentage figure dropped well below the current one... a year later it was at 8%. But the 3 Month on Previous 3 Month % Change graph is the news grabber... dropping below the horizontal for the first time in over three years.

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Hometrack recorded the fourth consecutive monthly fall in January, of 0.3%, leaving annual inflation at 2.3%, the lowest rate of growth since June 2006. It could have been much worse, but a lack of supply is apparently supporting prices. Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research is predicting a 5.5% fall in 2008, followed by a rise of 3% in 2009, and increasing rates of profit in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Place your bets.

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It's a fall of 0.8% in asking prices in the five weeks to January 12, leaving annual house price inflation at 3.4%, its lowest since December 2005.

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In cased you missed them...

Kensington & Chelsea
Wandsworth & Battersea
Borough/Soutwark
Hammersmith, Chiswick & White City
King's Cross
Elephant & Castle
Docklands
Greenwich Peninsula
Lea Valley Olympic Park
Stratford

Not many surprises, there. A mixture of old favourites, where limited stock and high-intensity foreign interest tends to keep prices up, and well-telegraphed regeneration areas. The Rat and Mouse was a little surprised not to see more from the south-east, where the Dulwich spread continues but it's still possible to find family-sized homes for (a little) less than zillionaire prices. Read the full piece here.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' house price balance fell to -49.1 (in English, 49.1% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise) in December, its most negative position since November 1992. Unsold stock has jumped by a further 7.1% (after a rise of 9.1% in November and 10.3% in October). The RICS continues to urge interest rate cuts.

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Thanks Tom... you're right, I do. You have to take the Department for Communities and Local Government seriously in one (and only one) respect... their house price index is based on completions. They've just dropped the November data, and it's a fall of 0.8%, leaving the annual growth at 9.5%, the lowest it's been in a year, but still higher than it's likely to be in a few months. More here.

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The average house price has risen by an inflation-adjusted 160 per cent over 12 years, according to Nationwide. Owners of London properties have done even better, with a 193 per cent increase. Such inadvertent financial coups confer bragging rights at dinner parties from Barnet to Bromley. Yet the tiramisu-scoffing asset allocators could only realise their swollen capital if they relocated permanently to Barnsley.

The FT's Jonathan Guthrie tells it like it is in a fabulous column, here. It's brave and provocative - given the FT's core readership - while avoiding the apocalyptic suicide-pact attitude found elsewhere.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

According to figures by Knight Frank, London homes costing £2.5m and more rose by 1% in December, leaving them up 29% on the year. Price increases are said to have been fueled largely by foreign buyers. More here.

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Tonight's, er, Tonight With Trevor McDonald, is all about the nuclear winter that could follow a housing crash... negative equity, repos, genetic mutation...

Technorati Tags: property, property TV, real estate

An interesting piece by Merryn Somerset-Webb, from the Standard, points out why London property is particularly susceptible to a falling pound.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

Halifax confounds and confuses this morning with news that its house price index shows a 1.3% rise for December, wiping out November's fall, and much of October's. The new figure leaves annual inflation at 5.2%, from November's 6.3%. Does this point to a rally? No more than a fall of 1.3% means a crash. Expect the indices to leap about a little during a period of uncertainty. But it remains to be seen whether the figure will have any bearing on the Bank of England when it meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

A reader asks ThisIsMoney, how can they make a bit of cash out of a house price catastrophe? The answer comes in two parts... spread betting and a new derivatives fund, due to be launched this month by Strutt & Parker, called the UK Residential Index. The first, we knew about. Strutt & Parker's entry into the pain relief market for the property over-exposed, we didn't. Interesting. According to this, it will use the Halifax House Price Index as a benchmark.

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According to Land Registry figures, house prices rose 0.6% nationally in November, leaving the annual inflation figure unchanged at 8.1%. London led the monthly gains, with 1.1%, leaving November 2007 up 15.6% on November 2006. The Land Registry's November figures compare with a -1.1% drop reported by the Halifax and a -0.8% tumble, reported by Nationwide... both of which created some hysteria in the wider press.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

Here's what they're saying:

Assetz 5%
Savills 3%
Knight Frank 3% (Prime London)
CML 1%
Hometrack 1%
RICS 0%
Lombard Street Research 0%
Rightmove 0%
Nationwide 0%
Halifax 0%
The Rat and Mouse -2% (national)
John Charcol -2%
Citigroup -3%
Global Insight -3%
Capital Economics -5%
Morgan Stanley -10%

What a difference a year makes. This time, 2006, the most pessimistic view was courtesy of Cluttons agents, and a 3% rise. Up at the top was Assetz, with a prediction of an 8-10% rise. The Rat and Mouse likes to hold fire for a few weeks and wait until the accurate DCLG figures before announcing a winner, but - after a late 2007 correction - it's looking as if the bears, including Cluttons and Capital Economics, are likely to walk away with the glory. However, it's probably okay to say right now that the general consensus was wrong. Just as it was wrong the year before, when a very bearish spread of predictions for 2006 misread the market entirely. The message? The experts' record for predicting house prices is very poor.

Another question entirely for 2008 is what should we wish for? The consensus is that it would be foolish to consider further bunker-busting house price rises a good thing, that they'd merely put off the inevitable, and make it more painful. The best we can hope for is, in reality, not very much... stable prices that allow general inflation to create a gradual, stealth house price correction in which nobody gets hurt, sanity is restored and first-time buyers profit. But that may take some time.

In the meantime, all that remains for the Rat and Mouse to do is wish its readers a very Happy New Year. Next time we meet, it'll be 2008.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

Nationwide's reporting a fall of 0.5% for December, leaving the annual inflation figure at 4.8%. The three-month figure is down to 0.9% (from 1.4% in November). In the accompanying comment, Fionnuala Earley makes the interesting point that house prices are finishing the year roughly where many analysts expected, however the route has been a little odd. That won't reassure chartists, however, who'll be focussing on the last few months' downward and seemingly sustained downward movement.

Meanwhile, lending's still down... 40% down November-to-November. More on that, here.

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According to Lucian Cook, director of Savills Research:

"The desirability of suburban life and the post war encroachment of suburbia, has resulted in the emergence of the super suburb.”

How do you spot a super suburb? Well, 50% of buyers in a super suburb are "high-ranking executives", 46% employed in City-related jobs. In the top 25 London suburbs, the average property value is £540,000. Space, quality-of-life, better schools... Savills gives a number of reasons for suburbia's popularity in the UK.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

Rightmove are blaming HIPs for a 3.2% house price fall nationally and - wait for it - a 6.8% fall in London in December, after a surge in one and two-bedroom homes hitting the market in the run up to HIPs day. A bit of mathematical voodoo reveals that the HIPs effect could have accounted for 1.1% of the national price fall and 2.3% in London. Rightmove's December figures leave their annual inflation rate at 4.8%, down from 7.9%. They aren't, however, being particularly bearish about the numbers, insisting that a monthly fall brought on by season and HIPs-related factors doesn't mean more falls in the New Year. More here.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

It strikes the Rat and Mouse that now is a particularly good time to be paying close attention to PropertySnake, the place to watch real-life asking price collapses as they happen. Today, we're particularly taken with this rather charming five-bedroom Victorian house in Clapham, down from an original guide price of £1.399m (according to this) to the current £995,000... that's a bargaintastic fall of 28%. Stay tuned for more. And have a great weekend.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

It's making BBC News headlines this morning... the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is reporting a fourth monthly fall. Remember - this is the strange one, in which the RICS hold the hands of a representative number of agents/surveyors and ask them how they're feeling. The results? In November, 41% sensed a drop in prices over the previous three months, 23% sensed a rise.

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So much of the frenzied debate about house prices in the U.K. is conducted in such a way to make one think falling house prices in a region are a bit like spotting the plague.

That's Morgan Stanley's David Miles, quoted in Bloomberg today, pointing out the lack of swelling associated with falling house prices. The moaning and the headaches, however, still stand. Miles's point is that a 10% fall next year only brings us back to where we were a year ago, and will have a positive redistributive effect for first time buyers and/or the young and "people about to trade up" (the last group, presumably due to a combination of a narrow gap between price bands and less Stamp Duty). He also berates anybody doubting the wisdom of the City, when it comes to the likelihood of such a fall:

For people who say that's absurd, I turn it back on them. Why do you think people who are smart and know about financial things and trade derivatives are pricing things in such a way that that's what they imply?

Hmm, dunno.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

Professor Daniel Bernhofen of the Globalisation and Economic Policy Centre has warned that if the Government press ahead with plans to build three million new homes by 2020 they'll risk toppling the UK market into a full-blown catastrophe. Bernhofen's take is that a lot of the recent so-called demand has been quite different to need, it's been investment-motivated. When interest from buy-to-let investors wains, our impression of the need - supply relationship might seem quite different. A colossal building programme before the market has had a chance to ease down prices gradually (in relation to general inflation) would, he believes, be extremely misguided. More, here.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

It's always late (the new figures are for October), but at least it means something, based, as it is, on completions. The Government data gives us a 0.1% rise in October, down from 0.3% in September. Annual inflation rose to 11.3% from 10.8%, reminding us that most of us can afford a slight weakening in prices without suffering an actual stroke.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

Flamboyant property entrepreneur Nick Leslau has just bet £234m on the mid-term health of UK residential property. The deal is a derivative-style deal with Swiss Re, who are reducing their exposure to property by offering Leslau exposure to 3,400 homes acquired through equity-release policies last year. The average age of tenants is said to be 82, so - and don't read this is you're feeling squeamish this morning - the majority of the property is expected to be sold in the next ten years. The Rat and Mouse wonders whether - by this time next year - Leslau will also be investing in meals-on-wheels and free door-to-door medical services.

[via Property Week]

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

It's the FT's property index, and it has England and Wales homes rising in value by 0.5% in November, leaving annual inflation at 9.1%. Yes, it's surprising. So how'd it happen? Firstly, it's based on transactions agreed before the panic really set in. Secondly, it's been skewed by some hot London action... with London discounted the index fell a little, and the annual rate was just 6.7%.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

That's London's most expensive tube line in terms of property prices. FindAProperty apparently have the answer - although I can't find it anywhere on their site. Luckily (and oddly), I found it via Country Life. Place your bets now. Answer after the jump.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

What's all the fuss about? asks CE Stuart Law. Demand will be boosted in 2008 by immigration, interest rates will drop back to 5%, buy-to-let will experience a second wind, with mortgage terms beating homebuyer mortgages and rents continuing to soar. Assetz are pinning a 5% growth tag on the 2008 UK property market. Courageous conviction or an attempt to talk up the market?

[via Mortgage Introducer]

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

The third consecutive monthly fall reported by the Halifax means a 1.1% drop in November, leaving the annual rate of house price inflation at 6.3% (down from 8.9%). As Tom points out in the comment after today's linkage, this is the first time the Halifax as recorded three falls in a row since 1995. More here.

Market report - Nationwide and a dramatic tumble [November 29, 2007]
Market report - London hit by October fall says Land Registry [November 28, 2007]

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

City bonuses are set, according to CEBR research, to drop by 20% this year, and 6,500 City jobs could go the way of cheap credit. The Sunday Times have spoken to estate agents who have already noticed a drop in enquiries in the property sectors most associated with bonus cash. Who'll get hit? Central London, the Cotswolds, the southwest, parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Kent. Obviously, it's not all about a lack of City money. It's also about a lack of confidence in the property market. Caused by a lack of City money. Caused by a lack of confidence in the property market. Caused by a lack of ... you get the picture.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

What madness? This madness...

House prices alert after biggest fall for 12 years [Telegraph]
Biggest drop in house prices for 12 years [Guardian]
Analysis: dire data [Times]
UK house prices see sharp tumble [BBC]
House prices decline for fastest rate in over a decade [House Move]
Shock fall in house prices [Express]

and

Is the roof falling in on the housing market? [Independent]

Now, the Rat and Mouse isn't going to claim the housing market is pointing in the same direction it was pointing this time last year. Nor am I trying to sweep under the carpet the terrible lending data that accompanied the Nationwide figures. But to make out that yesterday's Nationwide numbers are in any way a reliable indicator that something dramatic has just happened, signaling the tipping point, the very moment when the UK housing market fell off its perch, is not only nonsense, it's surely willful mischief on behalf of the media. They know, I know, you know, that the November drop of 0.8% - the "biggest drop in house prices in 12 years" - came after a rise, in October, of 1.1%. Clearly, October's rise was an anomaly (it arrived in the midst of other data that was all pointing to slight falls); and because of that a dramatic, corrective drop was almost inevitable for November. Taken alongside October's figure, November's 0.8% fall still leaves the market 0.3% up on September.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not buying UK property futures. All I'm saying is... let's not throw out our brains for the sake of a headline. Mix yourself a Marge, and have a cool weekend.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate

It's a 0.8% drop... the biggest monthly tumble since June 1995. The annual inflation figure now rests at 6.9%, down from 9.7% a month ago. Now - although there's little doubt the UK property market is cooling, and rapidly - it's important to remember that it was Nationwide who posted last month's shock rise. That October figure - a rise, against all other indices and indicators, of 1.1% - not only looks more than ever like a statistical blip, but also goes some way to explain the size of this month's fall. Nationwide's three-month inflation figure shows a softening, from 1.8% to 1.5%.

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"When Damien Hirst created his diamond-covered skull, one of our clients asked for the doorknobs of their new house to be similarly bejewelled. We used Swarovski crystals – at a cost of £257 for each knob. But for their favourite rooms, the master bedroom and reception, we created two knobs each studded with 4,328 diamonds, and costing £20,000 for each knob."

That's QuintessentiallyEstates' Lucy Russell talking to the Independent, about her work with extravagant knobs. The thrust of the piece is... if things are turning bad in the London property market... nobody's told the super-loaded.

"Another client requested a bright orange Cinderella pumpkin bed for her daughter. It cost £80,000," continues Russell.

So what? When I was a nipper I slept in a little bed made to look like a hat. Actually, it was a hat. I started in a bowler... got my first real bed when I grew out of the stetson. The real point here is that the top end of the market - the end catered for by these search agents and interior designers - obeys different rules. These properties are so different, and at this £25m+ sector so rare, that they're part art, part property.

Technorati Tags: London, property, real estate

A greater fall - no less - than any other region, totaling 0.6% for the month. It didn't, however, cancel out the previous month's rise, and overall the national figure was a small gain of 0.1%.