If someone tells you they saw this coming, they're lying. A second consecutive monthly rise in the HBOS index (0.2% in August, after 0.7% in July) brings the three-month average up 4.6% compared to a year ago. So what does this mean? A recovery in house prices? Forget about it... we're in for a difficult 12 months. The interesting point here is the contrast with the Nationwide index's behaviour in recent months, illustrating the unreliability of different indices using smaller-than-usual levels of data.

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