Robert Peston points out the irony of a Tory rebellion over a move to end a tax policy introduced two years ago by Alastair Darling and return to Lawson-era tax rues. It's good reading. He also suggests that current uncertainty of Capital Gains Tax changes could have a negative effect on property prices. If they just did it, the market might take a temporary hit.

But if the uncertainty persists about when the new higher rate will be introduced, the negative effect on house prices could be much greater. Because for those sitting on significant capital gains above the tax free rate of £10,100, it becomes rational to flog properties pronto - to take advantage of the 18% rate and avoid a tax rate that looks set for most property investors to rise to more than double that. In a housing market that is still weak, a wave of panicky sales could push down prices in a significant way. Perhaps that doesn't matter. Certainly, if you are yet to buy your first home and feel priced out of the market, you'll say hooray if prices fall.

Presumably he's talking about investors with large portfolios? Individual investors selling larger properties aren't going to help out first-time buyers. Those with smaller, first-time buyer-level properties have less to gain by selling now, and might want to hang around to enjoy rising yields. The big question is whether investors with large portfolios will be affected at all, or whether they'll be able to shelter the properties in a company or take advantage of the promised loopholes for entrepreneurs. Back to uncertainty.

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