Rat and Mouse
Wed
10
Feb
Lombard: Dead cat to stop bouncing

Lombard's Jamie Dannhauser predicts UK house prices will return to stagnation at best, with falls possible, in the second half of the year, dragged down by poor mortgage availability, particularly to first-time buyers.

“The ‘dead cat bounce’ seems to be reaching its end,” Dannhauser said. The ratio of completed sales to the stock of available property, which has a “lead relationship” for house prices, has declined during the past two months, he said.

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Comments

This is an interesting comment from Lombard much of which I would agree with. However, I have run the figures on 'available stock' of homes for sale against 'completed sales' each month right back to 2003. The average is a very neat 10 with the maximum of 16.93 in January 2005. The lowest was 12 months later in Dec 2006 when the ratio fell to 6.43.

The number of completed sales compared to total stock has fallen each month since May last year and last month was 7.14 - down from 12.85 at the start of the year.

I'm not sure that the 'lead relationship' for house prices that Mr Dannhauser has spotted is that clear.

http://www.housingexpert.net

Posted by Henry Pryor at February 10, 2010 10:17 AM


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