This is the story that put many of us off our breakfasts this morning:
And it turns out to have been a hoax. Jim Rogers has denied ever suggesting that the pound is about to go into an irrevocable meltdown, and described the whole affair as "outrageous". However, Citywire spoke to Rogers' longtime friend, Vince Stanzione, who says the quotes are legitimate. The latest - it seems - is here, where it appears Stanzione himself is responsible for the leaked quotes. Apparently, there was a "mix-up" and quotes attributable to Stanzione were attributed to Rogers. If I was Stanzione I would be a little upset that this is enough for a collective sigh of relief. Do his opinions not count, or something?
Once upon a time, the only people who used buying agents were celebrities looking for £5m-plus houses... Now, though, even we little people are paying as much as £3,000 upfront for someone to sniff out and secure us the house of our dreams. At which point we have to cough up another 2.5 per cent of the agreed purchase price (£50,000 on a £2m house).
If Christopher Middleton's idea of "we little people" involves buyers of £2m houses, then it looks like I used to write for the wrong broadsheet.
Weather-related jitters, or the end of the recovery? Nationwide posts it's first monthly fall in house prices since last April, with the value of the average UK home down 1%. Year-on-year, the numbers are still up, by 9.2%; and the (arguably more meaningful) three-month average shows a gain of 1.6%.
Tracy Kellett, of BDI Homefinders, takes the time to talk homesearch, the market and lighting up Twitter, and leaves us with our favourite estate agent joke yet.
So I hear you’ve bought and sold a few homes of your own in your time?
I’ve moved 26 times since leaving home at 18. Mainly around London and the south of England, but also a very Hicksville part of Southern Texas, the Amish part of Pennsylvania and Chicago. Let’s just say I have a low boredom threshold.
And your background is as an estate agent… what kind of an experience was that? Does it give you more or less “sympathy for the devil”?
I enjoyed the work but was never very good at taking orders, so I knew I was never going to pick up my pension. As a result, though, I strongly believe that a good etate agent can add enormous value, and not just monetary. On the other hand, it has also left me with very little tolerance for the bad eggs and I can be very vocal about that.
When did you start BDI Homefinders? What was the inspiration/impetus? What does the BDI stand for?
About seven years ago an estate agent colleague was selling a house to a very lovely couple who were placing a lot of trust in him. They were paying a good £200k more than they needed to. It left a bad taste. It dawned on me that there were many people like that and that it was a wholly unfair and one-sided market place. Being able to look after buyers’ interests, saving them money and advising them professionally, seemed like the perfect win-win business model. For them and me. BDI’s name came from two thoughts. One, I have no intention of sharing, far too rude. But the other is a pun on ‘beady eye’. At the time, I thought it was really witty. More fool me: no-one ever gets it.
More fun than being an agent?
Read the rest of the interview, including our favourite estate agent joke to date, after the jump.
I could link straight to a tabloid on this one, but that would mean missing out on the wonderful Divorce Diva divorce blog (I kid you, not), which says:
If we're right about this house, it's this, on Cheyne Walk, and he bought it a couple of years ago as an investment. (Not much of one, it turns out.) It's currently little more than a shell, with detailed planning permission for a substantial extension, including basement, sub-basement and pool. Click through to the particulars for its interesting history.
According to this, the London-only Metro bank, currently seeking FSA approval, has been laying claim to properties in readiness for an April launch. The new high street bank will open with branches in Earl's Court and Holborn, but already has properties in Borehamwood and Fulham Broadway. Interesting.
... asks the Telegraph's finance editor, Ian Cowie, in a piece one would assume was aimed at putting the newspaper's post baby-boom in a sanctimonious rage, were it not appearing on the paper's blog. Pull your neck in, FSA, he says. To the banks: lend up to 100%. To the borrowers: borrow... to 100% of the value of your home and five-times your salary. Oddly, though, he also expects house prices to start falling again when interest rates begin to rise after the election. Presumably, he has a view on employment, too. If he's actually saying, trust the borrowers, they know their limits... isn't the UK awash with evidence to the contrary? Read it, here.
According to the British Bankers' Association, approved loans for home purchases were down 23%, month-on-month, following the end of the Stamp Duty holiday for properties worth up to £175,000. Annually, however, loans were up 40%. More here.
Following a Facebook campaign, a statement by the National Trust suggesting it might find funds to buy it, interest from Andrew Lloyd Webber, it turns out Abbey Road Studios aren't for sale, nor have they ever been. In fact, according to EMI, the record company turned down an offer last year, and is looking for an investor (for "a revitalisation project"), not a buyer. A case of mixed messages, or another example of high-speed modern media getting to the story before it even exists?
The Office of Fair Trading report into UK estate agency has found that haggling over rates is to be recommended; estate agency laws discourage Tesco-style online competition; competition is weaker than it should be (although it didn't find any examples of local price-fixing); and the majority of buyers and sellers are happy with the service they've received. One would have thought that agents would be celebrating. Oh no. In response, Peter Bolton King of the National Association of Estate Agents is furious at the OFT for failing to take him and his profession to task; instead, sitting back and allowing every kind of shoddiness. Once again... a massive failure by the OFT. The last word, however, must go to Trevor Kent, a former NAEA president:
... with a house price survey. Apparently, house prices in Albert Square would have risen 436% since the show was launched, with the average AS property now worth £574,764 (compared to just over £122, 813 back in 1985). Impressive, but nothing compared to the 7369% rise in house values seen on Coronation Street. Incidentally, owner of the most valuable house in The Square? Former hooker Pat Evans. More of this nonsense, here.
The Telegraph looked at chairs for couples. That's two-seater chairs, not tiny sofas, actual two-seaters. One for you. One for me. And a footstool for my overwhelming sense of just how creepy and uncomfortable this is.
Google property listings arrived early down under. British estate agents and property portals might be interested in this sneak peak at what might be heading our way.
The embarrassment dates back to last Friday, when the Office of Fair Trading emailed over four hundred money laundering reporting officers (responsible for overseeing best practise at estate agencies and brokers) asking them to take part in a consultation. Unfortunately, OFT left everybody's email address in visible in the "To" field, and some recipients have already complained of receiving unsolicited mail, as well as expressed concern about being "outed". OFT have apologised, and asked everybody to delete the offending email. More here.
According to Shelter, if food bills had followed property prices since 1971, we'd be trying to find £420 a week. We'd be faced with paying £2.43 for a pint of milk, £47.51 for a chicken and £20.22 for a jar of coffee. (In other words, we'd all be shopping in Waitrose.)
The Department for Communities & Local Government published their December 2009 house price index today, so now seems as good a time as any to call it on 2009. The new data shows a 0.8% rise November-to-December and a rise of 2.9% (UK figure) December 2008 to December 2009. Looking back to this... predictions made by experts at the end of 2008... we can call a winner. Except... we can't:
If you want some perspective on just how unexpected is the current so-called recovery, take a look at that illustration above. For the DCLG figures in full, go here.
Credit-ratings agency Moody's warns of a brand new credit crunch, later this year and into 2011, as banks start to pay back 2007 and 2008's Government loans. The message is that the bail-out was a temporary fix, the pain is yet to be felt. Mortgage lending will be tight, as banks continue to struggle to raise money in the markets. For some building societies, things look bleak indeed:
Our publisher looks at Foxtons latest (and final) move in its long-running legal chess game with the Office of Fair Trading, in his weekly guest column for Citywire.
It started on Facebook... a simple little invite to a few friends, meeting at a Mayfair mansion they didn't own. And it ended up with 2,000 revelers having their party ruined by police in riot gear, concerned the property was actually going to collapse, due to the number of people clinging to its exterior and climbing onto its roof. More here. According to the Guardian:
Perhaps they should start their enquiries with the Guardian, where the two organisers are interviewed at length.
Fox said: "I've never seen that many people, except at festivals. As we were leaving the police said 'it's all kicking off you'd better get out of here'. They didn't know we had organised the party and were responsible for this chaos around us."
Doh! The organisers believe that the property's co-owned by HSBC, and the event was intended to be part protest, part squat, part old-fashioned rave. Could this be the start of a new chapter in the ongoing Mayfair squat story?
On Radio 5 Live, John Healey responded to today's repo-figures by suggesting being repossessed was an okay option for some households. Some people, he said, might not be able to keep up mortgage repayments even if they were renegotiated by the lender. The suggestion that these people would be best served by being kicked to the curb is puzzling, particularly in a country which doesn't allow borrowers the right to throw back the keys and walk away from a loan. If they're in negative equity - which they will be - they'll still be in debt. What could Healey be thinking? More here.
Arrears and repos declined in the fourth quarter according to Council of Mortgage Lenders figures. Ten thousand, two hundred properties were repossessed, 13% fewer than in the third quarter, and 2% fewer than in the fourth quarter of 2008. 2009's figures, as a whole, were more encouraging than either the CML's start-of-the-year or most recent forecast. They were, however, considerably higher than in 2008 and, we might add, a 14-year high. Forty-six thousand homes were repossessed across the 12 months. The last time we saw that kind of repo-action was in 1995.
Back in November, residential property derivatives were pointing to a 5.7% rise in house prices by December 2011. That's already dropped to 2.2%, with a slower-than-expected economic recovery, punitive post-election taxes and slow lending to blame. More here. Meanwhile - here - there's talk of a second crash. The This Is Money panel of experts warn of falling house prices by the end of 2010.
Peter Hargreaves, of Hargreaves Lansdown, compares our situation with the U.S. where some homes have fallen in value by 60%. He and investment expert Justin Urquhart Stewart suggest property prices will plunge 10% here.
The piece confirms stories I've been hearing on the grapevine... out of control gazumping in the bonus belts.
Steer away from the developers' press releases, and there's some interesting information here about the "new Nappy Valleys... the areas most popular with the current wave of expectant parents who can't afford life in Clapham or Wandsworth. Apparently, middle-class mums-to-be are going east, with Cambourne, in Cambridgeshire, rivaling China and India for its birthrate. Figures are backed up by BBC stats naming the county as having the highest population increase in the UK in the last quarter century.
Lombard's Jamie Dannhauser predicts UK house prices will return to stagnation at best, with falls possible, in the second half of the year, dragged down by poor mortgage availability, particularly to first-time buyers.
The Committee of Public Accounts has said that both banks will fail to meet their legally-binding commitments to lend a total of £39bn (RBS: £25bn; Lloyds: £14bn) by the end of this month, a commitment they made in return for substantial public support two years ago. The public's stake in RBS is an astonishing 84%, and yet there seems little that can be done to force the banks to lend. Indeed, if - as Lloyds claim - demand has been limited, it could be argued that the targets were set too high. The figures, incidentally, are for a mixture of business and mortgage lending. More here.
Toby Whittaker, who ran the controversial Dylan Harvey property investment company that lost millions of pounds of other people's money, including cash belonging to a few famous names (most famously footballers Steven Gerrard and Ryan Giggs), was beaten up in front of his family and robbed at knifepoint last week by six masked men. It's a complicated story. Police are said to be investigating the possibility that the robbers may be connected to the hundreds of furious investors, some of whom are chasing Whittaker in the courts. However, they're also investigating Whittaker himself for an alleged insurance fraud following another, earlier, burglary at his house. An ugly business in so many ways. More here.
A let-to-buy mortgage... a product by Nationwide that is aimed squarely at "reluctant landlords" forced, by the market, to seek tenants because they can't find buyers. It's been a grey area, with many reluctant landlords continuing with their normal residential mortgage and failing to inform their buildings insurers of the change... which is extremely risky. The Nationwide let-to-buy mortgage will put things on a property footing. Oh, yeah, and it will cost more.
Internet users in 15 US states are trialing an Adwords Comparison Ads system by Google, in which the search engine delivers mortgage product information from participating lenders in return for a fee if a user requests a quote. Its caused concern in the UK market, that a similar scheme, here, might damage smaller lenders who don't sign up (with its giant share of the search market, Google can quickly "define" a sector); might damage the already broken mortgage brokerage sector; might damage established price comparison sites. More here.
It's Andrew Emelife - formerly trading under Loans4Assets.com (nothing to see, there... it just forwards to the FSA's own site) - has been banned after being found submitting three fraudulent mortgage applications (for himself, his business, a customer). For the purposes of his mortgage application his annual salary was £188,000. For the purposes of the Inland Revenue, it was £15,000. More here.
More estate agent data, this time from Savills, looking at buy-to-let returns, and crowning east London as king of the quick returns. Barking & Dagenham, Havering and Newham were marked out for their big month-to-month yields. However, as any landlord worth their keys will tell you, month-to-month yields aren't everything, and traditional west and central London areas, where short-term yields aren't so impressive, might make better long term investments, with their more solid capital growth potential. More here.
Instead, they're being offered expensive (to arrange and to service) fixed loans, and in some instances no longer have access to the best deals, after falling house prices have changed their loan-to-value ratios.
A big "thank you" to our sponsor, Primelocation.com. Remember, Primelocation.com isn't just about searching properties listed by 4,000 leading estate agents, the website's a mine of useful advice, information and links. An example? Go here to search up-to-date real life completion prices for UK property. Snoop on your neighbours. Do the maths before making an offer. It's useful, it's free... you need to register, but it's quick and easy. If you've feedback, let us know and we'll pass it on with pleasure.
If you want to know more about advertising opportunities on the Rat and Mouse, drop me a line. Or if you just want to chat with the Rat, we're on Twitter here, or email us tips here.
The tenth consecutive month of gains in Knight Frank's Prime Central London posh property index leaves it a giant 11.5% higher than in January 2009. The monthly gain was just 1.1% (down from 2.1% in December 2009), and left average prices at the top end of the London market 15% above the bottom of the market, but still 12% of its peak. More here.
We just couldn't cope with the mighty Renter Girl, but came a respectable second, which is why I'd like to thank the (more than 1,500) readers who bothered to click through and vote. It's truly appreciated. While I'm at it, January was a record month for traffic, with the Rat and Mouse serving 234,149 pages. So thanks for that, too. Keep reading.
The Financial Services Authority's proposed ban on self-certification mortgages (dubbed "Liar Loans") is being challenged by the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
It's a tough job, defending fast-track loans after recent events, but the CML appears to be saying that an outright ban might be discriminatory, effectively condemning many self-employed people to an inadequate and inappropriate mortgage system.
The Hip-Consultant blog questions our compulsive need for an exciting residential property market, and recommends a few dull years... good for the soul, good for long term stability and prosperity. And good luck with that. After less than a century as a country of property owners, a football-pools-attititude to the Halifax House Price Index is already so ingrained, it's hard to imagine it going anywhere (indeed, it's the madness that inspired this blog). But Hip-Consultant might be a bit premature if the suggestion is that recent house price moves are a sign of the start of another bull market. Limited supply, demand and data, and freakish interest rates make the current market very hard to read. Let's see what happens when any one of those factors is removed.
Marcus Cooper Group - the developers behind Witanhurst - are back with a gala development... seven listed office buildings in the prime real estate area around Regents Park are to be turned back into the mansion they once were. Plans - lodged with Camden Council - suggest something on a truly grand scale... 50,000 square feet, two staff houses and a car park. People are already talking about London's first £100m home. More here.
It's a rise of 0.1% in the value of the average English and Welsh home. But - unlike others - the Hometrack index is still in the red, year-on-year, down 0.8%. Accompanying commentary also urges caution, pointing to an extreme shortage of supply covering up what is still dampened demand, and suggesting that - with transactions still low - a relatively small number of deals at the top end of the market may be unduly affecting the index.
Okay - now don't get me wrong - I'm as horrified as the next man at the stories you hear about homeowners defending their property from thieves, and then finding themselves locked up for assault, while the thieves are free to drive around in their white Saxos. But this?
No human rights? Currently, the law says a homeowner is allowed to use "reasonable force" to protect themselves and their property. If I was Mr Cameron, and I was worried about the current system, I'd be looking for some clarification and assurance that what the people's definition of "reasonable force" is the same as the judiciary's. I wouldn't, however, be campaigning for the legalisation of "unreasonable force" or the removal of human rights. Because isn't that a bit... silly?
Increased mortgage availability and a faith in the continuation of low interest rates (until mid-2011, possibly beyond) has led CEBR to revise its house price predictions upward. They now expect a 6% rise in 2010, and a rise of 20% by the end of 2013.
And it's called... ChainFree.com. According to this it's a Spicerhaart production, and properties featured are a combination of repos, new builds and housing assocation stock, and have been valued by two independent surveyors.
I’ve moved 26 times since leaving home at 18. Mainly around London and the south of England, but also a very Hicksville part of Southern Texas, the Amish part of Pennsylvania and Chicago. Let’s just say I have a low boredom threshold.
