It's Nationwide, reporting a 0.4% rise in October, leaving house prices 2% above their October 2008 level, and in the black (on an annual basis) for the first time since March 2008. So what's going on? With unemployment - a trailing indicator - still rising, credit hard to come by and interest rates capable of heading in one direction only... the Nationwide index has risen 4.6% so far this year. Well, October's 0.4% rise did what it needed to get headlines, but it was a moderate rise, still based on a small data sample, and flattered by appalling conditions a year ago. Don't count any chickens.

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