The 298-page report to clients by investment bank Numis Securities was written in February, but it's creating some eye-popping newspaper headlines in March. The key points appear to be... house prices remain 17% to 39% overvalued but (because of the nature of property bubbles) could drop a further 55% in an over-correction cause by buy-to-let panic selling... the Government monkeyed up the VAT drop and continues to monkey up the economy with an ill-advised policy of pushing banks toward inappropriate lending... and the clincher:

The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK Government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly indebted economy. We believe the scale of the macro imbalances in the UK means there is no prospect of a recovery in 2009 and we expect the UK to be mired in a deep recession through all of 2010

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