Optimists dared to ask whether the first glimmer of sunshine had appeared on the horizon yesterday, after figures showed a modest increase in loans given to first-time buyers and some estate agents reporting possible sightings of "green shoots" in the market.

We Brits never give up, do we? This is Council of Mortgage Lenders data, showing a 15% increase in the number of loans to first-time buyers between October and November. The excitement is about seeing a figure that's black, but calling the end of the property crash would surely be premature. There simply comes a point beyond which volume just can't fall any further. It won't be enough to support prices, and it's unlikely to be followed by steadily increasing volume. Not yet, anyway.

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