First off... a quick refresher. Here's what they were saying last year.

It's been that kind of a year... a year that made Capital Economics look bullish, and left the Rat and Mouse with egg on its whiskers. 2009's set of predictions look very different. It's a clean sweep for negative numbers. There are some notable names missing altogether (Halifax isn't playing, because it doesn't feel it's appropriate to publish independent research when the company's on the verge of losing its independence; Nationwide won't play because of a fear of current volatility; the Council of Mortgage Lenders because it's all too depressing; the National Association of Estate Agents because it has too much sense.) Some things never change, however. Notice, at the top... the estate agents; at the bottom... Capital Economics. Here goes:

Hamptons ↓5%
KFH ↓5%
Assetz ↓5%
Winkworth ↓5% to ↓10%
Hometrack ↓10%
RICS ↓10%
The Rat and Mouse ↓10%
Legal & General ↓10% to ↓15%
Barclays ↓10% to ↓15%
Propertyfinder ↓12%
Knight Frank ↓15%
Capital Economics ↓20%

Halifax NO BETS
Nationwide NO BETS
Council of Mortgage Lenders NO BETS
National Association of Estate Agents NO BETS

There are specific and special problems with making predictions for 2009. For instance, none of us really knows where house prices are right now. Transaction levels are low enough to be statistically unreliable. According to Halifax - the place we traditionally look at this time of year - prices are currently down 18% from their summer 2007 peak. The general economic crisis provides a further layer of uncertainty. Arguably more important than interest rates or the willingness/ability of the lenders to lend, is employment. If 2009's job-losses turn into the catastrophe some predict, they'll count out any kind of house price recovery, and may well add impetus to a downward spiral. Nor will the market act as a whole. New builds are likely to suffer, as developers decide they'd prefer a kicking to a fatal lack of cash. Internationally desirable locations and properties, on the other hand, could profit from a weak pound.

In other words, it will be complicated.

Happy New Year to you. The Rat and Mouse will be back on Monday.

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