Here's what they're saying:

Assetz 5%
Savills 3%
Knight Frank 3% (Prime London)
CML 1%
Hometrack 1%
RICS 0%
Lombard Street Research 0%
Rightmove 0%
Nationwide 0%
Halifax 0%
The Rat and Mouse -2% (national)
John Charcol -2%
Citigroup -3%
Global Insight -3%
Capital Economics -5%
Morgan Stanley -10%

What a difference a year makes. This time, 2006, the most pessimistic view was courtesy of Cluttons agents, and a 3% rise. Up at the top was Assetz, with a prediction of an 8-10% rise. The Rat and Mouse likes to hold fire for a few weeks and wait until the accurate DCLG figures before announcing a winner, but - after a late 2007 correction - it's looking as if the bears, including Cluttons and Capital Economics, are likely to walk away with the glory. However, it's probably okay to say right now that the general consensus was wrong. Just as it was wrong the year before, when a very bearish spread of predictions for 2006 misread the market entirely. The message? The experts' record for predicting house prices is very poor.

Another question entirely for 2008 is what should we wish for? The consensus is that it would be foolish to consider further bunker-busting house price rises a good thing, that they'd merely put off the inevitable, and make it more painful. The best we can hope for is, in reality, not very much... stable prices that allow general inflation to create a gradual, stealth house price correction in which nobody gets hurt, sanity is restored and first-time buyers profit. But that may take some time.

In the meantime, all that remains for the Rat and Mouse to do is wish its readers a very Happy New Year. Next time we meet, it'll be 2008.

Technorati Tags: property, real estate