Rat and Mouse
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Fri
29
Dec
2007 house prices - the predictions

20061229Crystalball
This is what they're saying:

Assetz 8-10%
County Homesearch 7.5%
Savills 7%
CML 7%
RICS 7%
Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward 6-7%
Knight Frank 6%
FindAProperty 6%
Nationwide 5-8%
NAEA 5%
Hamptons 5%
Strutt & Parker 4.5%
John Charcol 4.5%
Haart 4-5%
HBOS 4%
Hometrack 4%
Capital Economics 3.5%
Cluttons 3%

Compared to last year - when all the talk was of a crash - it's a big bunch of bulls, many of them blowing egg from their hot snorting faces now that 2006 looks as if it's going to end with something like an 8-10% rise, rather than a catastrophic crash. (The Rat and Mouse isn't going to give a final 2006 figure quite yet, on the assumption that it's never over until the fat government department - which measures completion prices - sings.) Two things are notable about the above list. First, it flicks peas in the face of fears about interest rate rises. Rates may well be on the way up, but few commentators appear to believe the small increases predicted will have the firepower to dent the property market. Second, the list is pretty much meaningless, because 2007 is going to be a year of regional variation, in which London, the South East, Scotland and Northern Ireland lead prices.

Want to know what they were saying last year? Here's the 2006 list (or go here for the full Rat and Mouse entry):

John Charcol 5.5%
Knight Frank 5%
RICS 4%
Halifax 3%
Nationwide 3%
Hometrack 1%

Savills 0%

PropertyFinder.com -0.3%
Capital Economics -5%

Hey, if the market drops three quarters of a per cent in 2007, there's time for Capital Economics to recover for the two-year average...

Comments

How wrong we were.

Posted by Alice Spencer at July 31, 2008 11:48 AM


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