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Entries in December 2005
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As promised, the Rat and Mouse's collation of 2006 house price predictions:
John Charcol 5.5%
Knight Frank 5%
RICS 4%
Halifax 3%
Nationwide 3%
Hometrack 1%
Savills 0%
PropertyFinder.com -0.3%
Capital Economics -5%
There are more. You can find lofty predictions made by estate agents before Brown's SIPPs U-turn. And, over at HousePriceCrash, you can find headline-grabbing crash predictions, but none of them are specific to 2006. The nine above seem to us to be the most important. RICS gains credibility with its spot-on 3% prediction for 2005. Its 2006 prediction is based on increased sales. Meanwhile, it's the FTB problem that worries Capital Economics, with house prices still far ahead of wages. Savills' 0% forecast hides a 5% prediction for prime central London property - which gets good press everywhere. The Rat and Mouse feels a lot depends on interest rates - and it's the eventual the trade-off between recent talk of cuts and lenders' newfound caution over British debt-levels that's going to shape 2006 house prices. As more predictions come in, we'll update the list and link to it.
So... that's enough of that. And it's time for me and my techie buddy Henry to wish you all a very happy bank holiday. Please keep visiting us in 2006 - remember to write to us with tips, arguments, complaints, theories, pics, gossip and stories. And let us know what you'd like to see on the Rat and Mouse. Polls? A forum? Comments? Your opinions matter to us.
Happy New Year!
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Loan approvals are up November-to-November by a massive 51%. And yet, over at ThisIsMoney, there's a poll that goes:
Are we on the brink of a total collapse in the housing market?
Yes, that's on the brink and total collapse, and I clicked to the see the results so far. At the time of writing, 71% are saying yes, despite all the recent upbeat figures. But then, there's no way of telling how many people, in these hazy days between Christmas and New Year, have turned up and bothered to vote. That 71% could easily be a handful of nutters from HousePriceCrash. Go and vote.
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Did Rat and Mouse readers desert us over Christmas? Not at all. In fact, it's slightly scary how many London property fanatics visited us over the holiday period. Special thanks, though, to the Rat and Mouse reader who emailed us late on Friday with this link to pictures of Keira Knightley doing a bit of London house-hunting.
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The Telegraph's Rosie Murray-West has been speaking to Rightmove's Miles Shipside, and together they've put together a useful guide to the shifty language of particulars. Everybody knows what bijou means, but I hadn't come across sepia as agent-speak for "chocolate brown" before. It's a fun read, and it's here.
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So... it's time now to say goodbye for a few days, wish all our readers a very Happy Christmas, and pretend we're not obsessing about London property for just a few days. I've been purposefully ignoring all, or at least most, of the 2006 house price prediction during the last few days, with the intention of gathering them together for a last post of the year next week. So stay tuned for that. Otherwise, I'll be away Monday and Tuesday, and back with the occasional story from Wednesday. MERRY CHRISTMAS, and thanks for reading the Rat and Mouse.
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Property news silly season continues with this tale of a sixteen-bedroom Somerset mansion and a cash-strapped owner desperate to swap it for a council house. Reading this from North Carolina? Called Slade? Know somebody called Slade? Your ship might have come in.
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Award for the most opportunistic press release of 2005 goes to Pickfords in association with the British Chiropractic Association, who win at the very last moment with this heartfelt warning:
Lyndsey Daykin from Pickfords comments: "Moving house can be very stressful in its own right, so sustaining an injury while moving heavy furniture or boxes could cause further misery. By following Pickfords' simple tips, you can stay safe, minimise the stress and ensure your move is injury-free, however you decide to move home."
Because, after all, January is the second most busy month of the year for house-moving. Go here for Pickfords' guide to watching your back.
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 Ann Maurice is currently looking for trainee House Doctors to take part in a kind of interior design X-Factor. Applicants will be whittled down to a remaining eight, who will then compete in a kind of bland-taste shootout. The prize? £20,000 and help starting up a business. And, who knows, your own show? Here's how to apply.
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I love that picture. In my heart, I know life on one of these new Double Decker Living buses won't be all about semi-naked women lounging around in high heels (my guess is it'll be more like this)... but a property nut has to have a dream too.
Nice pods [November 1]
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Standard Life economist Gavin Redknap adds: "This is the final nail in the coffin for predictions of a housing market crash."
Blimey, confidence. That's after news of mortgage lending reaching its highest point in 18 months. More, here.
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Over at Londonist, there's considerable enthusiasm at news that Southwark's Shard project is expanding, with a kind of "Baby Shard" announced by Renzo Piano. Well, he says "Baby", but we're talking about a £400 million shopping and office development, about the height of 1 Canada Square... the kind of baby that at one time would be destined for a career in the circus, really. But head over to Londonist for a picture of what the towers are replacing, and share in our mutual excitement.
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"... the market slowdown appears to have come to an end..."
And that reckless piece of Christmas party confidence is actually a quote. Four per cent more surveyors reported a rise in house prices in the three months to November, which is a change from minus-8% just a month before. It's also the first positive report in 15 months. Interestingly, the number of completions rose for the first time in 16 months, despite the market entering a traditionally slow Christmas period. Largest house price increases were in London. More, here.
Crash? What Crash? [December 19]
Hometrack's last report of the year [December 19]
The market - part 2 [December 12]
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So the year's ending the way it began - with the bears and the bulls fighting it in print while the market manages to defy them both by doing very little indeed. For the bulls' view, here's Clare Francis of the Times, whose report is weighted in favour of interviews with estate agents. In her world view, houses aren't being built as fast as households are being formed, interest rates are set to tumble in 2006, and London is already leading the way in a house price recovery. Speaking for the bears, here are John Robson and Andrew Selsby of RH Asset Management, writing in Money Week. According to them Brown's pensions U-Turn will turn out to be the tipping point, after more conservative lending policies, recession and a still over-valued market push the market to the precipice. Meanwhile, on those interest rates, go here to read why John Boulger of Charcol believes interest rates are going to fall next year and then fall again and possible again, shaving 0.75% of an already low number. Great.
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More in this Category - _Other
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And it goes like this:
* For most of the country, 2005 was a year of stagnation or slight property price retreats of an average of 1.3%
* The exceptions were mainly in the north of England... oh, yeah, and central London and the City, which led price increases with a still blushingly modest 1.8% increase
* Milton Keynes wins the booby prize, with over production of houses and weakening demand resulting in a 7.2% drop from December to December
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It's a kind of Blind Date for first-time buyers - a new BBC3 reality show, in which first-time buyers are teamed up to give them a little more financial clout, and then shoved forth into the market with only Sarah Van der Noot's extraordinary name for succor. It's on at 9pm. More, here.
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I live in Highgate, north London, where I once walked down the high street behind an old lady and a young man who was perhaps her grandson. "That used to be the fishmonger's," she was saying. "That was the hardware shop, this one was the pork butcher's." It was quite heartbreaking, since most of the shops in Highgate are now occupied by traders selling knick-knacks for middle-class people with too much money. (For about two years, there was a shop in Highgate that sold only fat beige candles.) Either that, or they are occupied by estate agents. Of around 45 shopfronts, 15 must be occupied by estate agents. Many of the people who work in them are very nice, but I would evict them all, so that people can start living in the area rather than investing in it.
That's Highgate novelist Andrew Martin, contributing to a New Statesmen article in which various thinkers are asked for their Christmas eviction nominations. Personally, I don't understand the logic. But enjoy the article anyway, don't miss Ken Livingstone's kicking at the pen of designer Stephen Bayley, and don't expect to return to it in any 24 hour time span, as the New Statesman prefers its online readers to pay for the privilege.
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Thanks to the kind Rat and Mouse reader who pointed this one out to us. Expect to find Orlando Bloom's Battersea apartment on the market soon... the story is that he's already property hunting with girlfriend Kate Bosworth.
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Graham Norwood writes in today's Independent about the seemingly growing number of properties that sit on the market for more than a year. There's little mystery when it comes to the reasons... vendors haven't been willing to lower prices to meet buyers' expectations in a market that is being broadcast in the media as belonging to them. More interesting, though, is what to do if your own home has - either due to your own pigheadedness or your agent's idleness - been allowed to go stale. A Knight Frank agent suggests "dressing" the property buy hiring in better furniture:
"Nine times out of 10 a sale happens quickly afterwards because it looks better and people buy into the lifestyle that the furniture suggests."
Jeez, are we really that stupid?
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A survey by Privilege Home Insurance finds that UK homeowners believe they have increased the value of their properties' by 51 billion pounds after being inspired by TV makeover shows. But the key word in that sentence appears to be believe. It looks as if these figures are reached by asking said homeowners for estimates, and even for experts this kind of valuation is a totally inexact science. Top telly-inspired projects are said to include garden water-features. Does a water-feature add value? Call me a snob, but aren't water-features the new gnomes?
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More in this Category - _Other
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Except London property developers are involved in this one. The Telegraph has this painful court report, from a trial in which a woman is being sued by her property developer step-father for £100,000 which she claims was a gift. He says he lent it to her so she could pay the mortgage on a £500,000 Fulham flat, which she had promised to turn around for a quick profit: It all went wrong when it became clear that the step-father was a serial adulterer.
"It was not a loan. I made it very clear to him. I said, 'It ain't a loan. Daddy I don't owe you a dollar. I don't owe you any money at all.'"
Read the story, and then tell us... which of the two characters do you find the most repulsive? I just can't decide.
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"John Hutton was there with his wife, Heather," reports one. "We never realised they lived so close, but Hutton was cracking jokes about life on 'old hookie's' street. He was charming, and particularly admired Ben and Neal's front garden, which they've just had redone with smart curved paving stones."
Charming, indeed. Hookie, by the way, is Abu Hamza. Ben and Neal are Ben Bradshaw (Environment Minister) and his boyfriend Neal Dalgleish (Newsnight), and John Hutton is John Hutton (new Work & Pensions Secretary). The person talking - quoted in the Independent - is a mutual neighbour invited to a Christmas party at Ben and Neal's gaff. Because the point of the story is that all four are neighbours in one particular road in Shepherds Bush. Admittedly, Hutton won't be popping next door to Hamza's (yes, he actually lives next door) for a cup of sugar, because Hamza's not home much these days. And what the hell would Hamza be up to with sugar in his kitchen anyway?
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 Where the hell's Morley, anyway? We think it's Yorkshire. In any case, a Morley estate agency called Manning Stainton is playing host this week to Morley FM - live radio from the sales desk, pop and particulars, MOR and APR, dedications and valuations... enough already. The agency's giving away radios and sponsoring the station too... and clearly sees the whole exercise as a way of associating the brand with a certain kind of community spirit. And why not? This is Foxtons FM, and that was Feargal Sharkey...
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"Every family in Manchester is getting £500 more for council services than every family in Surrey."
That's Conservative leader of Surrey County Council Nick Skellett summing up why council taxes in the South are heading upward with such alacrity that, to meet the 5% target, services are going to have to be cut. Southern councils are being robbed to enable greater levels of funding in the North. It's not fair, he says. But then, he would, wouldn't he? However, he is supported by evidence from a Barclays Bank investigation, which apparently shows that higher levels of pay in London and the South East doesn't compensate for the higher cost of living. More, here.
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New ODPM figures - although, of course, slow to reach us compared to rival indices - contain an interesting detail. Today's figures date back to October - and they reveal a 0.3% fall nationally, annual house price inflation falling to 2.2% and actual, factual deflation (-0.2%) in London. It's safer to take the whole thing as stagnation. But what is interesting is the news that despite the slowdown in prices, things continue to get more difficult for the first-time buyer, who is paying 5% more than in 2004. Press this for Prescott's pdf.
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Rightmove's latest survey (November 13 to December 3) reports a 0.8% fall in the average house price. If there's anything at all in the figure, it can be explained by vendors lowering their prices as the psychological hurdle of an end-of-year piles on the pressure. Interestingly, Rightmove's forecast for 2006 is one of the most optimistic so far, at +4%. More, here from Reuters. Or press this to download Rightmove's pre-Christmas pdf.
Nationwide's 2006 prediction [December 9]
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The Rat and Mouse gets readers... more than we dared imagine we'd get when I joined forces with an ace web designer to set this thing up. And that's fine. But we'd really like more of your stuff... that's your tips, your stories, your opinions, your favourite property porn and particulars, favourite property TV, least favourite estate agents, your own London property-related stories, your photos from the city streets. Estate agents - and we know you're reading this because your IP addresses say it's so - we want your stuff, too. I know it's a tough business, and your clients are no angels. Tell us about it. It's time to get interactive. We don't pass on email addresses (to be honest, we're not organised enough to hold onto them ourselves.) And we'll never reveal your identity. Unless, of course, you insist. So come on... more interaction, that's what we want, now and in 2006. You know where to find us.
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UK house prices "to rise in 2006" [BBC]
House prices "may fall" in 2006 [ThisIsMoney]
Confused? ThisIsMoney puts the emphasis on house price rises (forecast by Nationwide to be somewhere between zero and three per cent) in relation to inflation, which they forecast will be just over 2%.
Suckers [December 7]
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It's a new innovation courtesy of 4homes and it sounds like fun. Right? So far... hardly a buzzing epicentre of informed property speculation or gossip:
BenRM enters the chatroom
fat cow: hey Ben
You say "hi"
ashely enters the chatroom
fat cow: hi ashley
fat cow: I like the name ashley
ashely tells you "hey"
you say "how are you, ashely"
ashely: how cums yours is fat coq?
you say "excuse me?"
ashely: cow
fat cow: cuz I'm fat
ashely: k
fat cow: going to bog. brb
ashely: how r u ben
BenRM leaves the chatroom
Obviously, assume the entire conversation comes with a giant "sic", and don't expect to find Kirstie and Phil joining in just yet.
Estate agency job interview leads to nuclear physics bust-up [October 19]
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A fuller picture is now emerging of the chaos caused by Gordon Brown's appalling mismanagement of the now-you-see-Sipp, now-you-don't residential property tax break screw-up. And it's not a pretty sight. Apparently, as many as 5,000 London apartments have been bought off-plan, with the intention of sticking them in a self-invested personal pension after April 6. Christine Seib, of the Times talks to Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein property analyst Alastair Stewart:
"They're not going to complete," he said. "I've heard from various places today that people are in an absolute panic about it."
To add insult to injury, the scramble for pension properties has over-heated the new-build market, which no doubt goes some way to explain this. Where's all this going?
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Forty-eight million pounds, to be precise, for Fastcrop, the holding company behind Primelocation.com. Fastcrop has urged its shareholders (many of whom are the estate agents advertising on the website) to accept the offer. No shit. More, here.
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Buy-to-let lender The Mortgage Works have announced they're no longer prepared to lend against new-builds. Why not? It sounds as if they've been stung by would-be over-geared landlords accepting a high, initial price from developers for purposes of a valuation, and then striking a deal after the mortgage is in place. In any case, with new-builds coming out of our ears, it's too difficult, they say, to achieve a realistic or accurate valuation until the properties have been introduced to the market and allowed to settle. Full story, here. From what we understand, the new rule applies not just to The Mortgage Works, but all lenders in the Portman Group. It's a buy-to-let story, but there's a lesson here for all of us.
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... remain unchanged, for the fourth consecutive month.
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All the money's on interest rates remaining where they are, after the Bank of England meet later today. But here's the Halifax, lending weight to fund manager John Maskell's conviction, that 2006 and 2007 are going to see further rate cuts.
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In the 2004/2005 tax year, the treasury received 41% more revenue from stamp duty and inheritance tax than they had for 2003/2004. Now research conducted by the University of York shows that the total tax on property (four times higher today than when Labour came to power in 1997) has risen more than if the government had imposed capital gains tax on principal property transactions. Read a story of fiscal creep, courtesy of the Independent, here.
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 "Beware the suckers' rally", says Fleet Street Letter economics writer Brian Durrant. If house price inflation reaches double figures in 2006, we could face the correction that a year or two more of subdued prices might have avoided. And clearly, he's right. Except who, in their right mind, is forecasting that kind of growth next year? Not even the CML (2%). Where the article is worth a read, though, is in his summation of the game so far...
In January 2003, Professor Andrew Oswald of Warwick University urged us to sell up - quick! - because "over the next two years there is going to be blood on the estate agents' carpets from Thurso to Torquay". He forecast a 30% crash in house prices... If you had taken Prof Oswald's advice you would have missed out on a gain in the average property price from £107,905 to £157,107... a massive 33%.
Find the full article on the other side of this link.
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It didn't take a genius to see the flaws in residential property SIPPs when combined with the government's longterm housing agenda... and it's probably a good thing that Gordon Brown has finally chucked the whole notion into the government's announced-before-it-was-thought-through idea landfill. But what about the waste of both public time and money, and the public's time and money? What about the money spent on IFAs? What about the property speculators who gambled on a minor price resurgence based on the announcement? What about the IFA who advised their clients to buy off-plan, and their clients who are now committed to buy new builds they neither need nor want, in a housing market that won't be nearly as lively as many people thought? Does anybody else recognise this as the criminal mismanagement it clearly is? And how exactly is Brown going to be held responsible?
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"They're running out of wood for all the for-sale signs," said Maskell, a former trader and analyst who lives in the borough of Westminster. "They probably need to cut rates."
Maskell is John Maskell... a manager at Barclays Global Investors, who has seen his Ascent UK Real Return Bond make 7.7% this year (compared to a 4.7% average). And for next year, he's betting that two year bonds are set to rise off the back of lower interest rates. What's particularly interesting, though, is that this is an example of Maskell going out on a limb. Mervyn King (who was last heard talking up the property market) isn't with him on this one, nor are other fund managers. A Scottish Widows manager is quoted thus:
"Those living in London have a very London-centric view of the world often collected from anecdotes on house prices from their mates at dinner parties," he said. "We think the housing market is sanguine and certainly don't think it's collapsing."
Maskell (who apparently won't buy property in London right now, even at a discount) seems positive the market is going to fall further, leaving the Bank of England with nowhere to go but Cutsville. He sounds tremendously confident. Read more, here.
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More in this Category - _Other
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Somebody is going to fall in love with this two-bedroom converted 19th Century coach house in The Tonsleys. Check out the two front arches (now French doors)... they were the original Hackney carriage entrances. There's a 30ft garden, too, and a small roof terrace, and the ground floor is open-plan in a very airy and cool way. Interestingly, the property still comes with its commercial license. It's with Foxtons, at £595,000. Find particulars on the other side of this link. (Incidentally, the agents seem to have really gone to town on this one, even featuring a glossy photograph of the inside of the owner's pantry. Say what you will about Foxtons, that's what I call attention to detail.)
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"I've even seen a sale reach deadlock over a loo seat," says Jonathan Bergman, of Hampstead estate agents Amberden Estates. "The flat was worth £1.2 million, the loo seat £15. Clearly, it had sentimental value for the vendor."
And what about the buyer who demanded the vendor include the family dog in the deal? It's an essential read courtesy of the Telegraph - stories of petty squabbles turning into potential deal-breakers, in a market that encourages (in addition to gazundering) vindictive lists of demands from buyers who reckon they're at last holding the loaded gun and want to enjoy that feeling.
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Not everybody's convinced by HBOS's upbeat property price index report at the end of last week. Go here for some sensible weekend coverage from the Guardian.
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And are we excited about these glamorous twin towers, designed by the team who brought you Chicago's Sears Tower? Damn right, we are. Fifty storeys, a resident's cocktail bar on the top, floor-to-ceiling glass walls, and a tiered structure that borrows from the Chrysler and Empire State Buildings ... I know, to many the towers will represent evil icons to filthy lucre; and to most Londoners they'll remain entirely irrelevant. But - one of two self-confessed capitalist pigs stirred enough by London property to launch this website in the first place - I just can't help getting turned on by the idea of something so ambitious... a reaching for the sky that will reference the coolest structures from the home of the skyscraper, and inject some style into the Docklands' Germanic, corporate landscape. Some more details, here.
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News reaches the Rat and Mouse that, somewhere in Fulham, there's a five-bedroom house (with roof terrace), priced at £875,000 that's owned by tennis star Pat Cash, and has been since 1986. He apparently spends so little time here, he might as well let the property go. If you think know the agent, address... let us know.
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That's one of a number of appalling cock-ups brought to light by a new report, after right-to-buy leaseholders complained of ever-increasing service charges. Others include... - failure to consult leaseholders before commissioning expensive repairs - maintenance bills for whole estates being charged to small blocks - and systems open to abuse and exploitation (and we all know what that means). According to icSouthLondon, a 77-year-old cancer sufferer and his 71-year-old wife received a bill for £27,000. Amazingly, when they complained they couldn't pay the bill by the three-week deadline, they were told they could spread their payments over 25 years. In the same piece, a spokesman for Southwark Council is quoted thus:
"Inviting leaseholders to participate in the process of reviewing service charges is one of almost 20 improvements brought in by the housing department aimed at making the service more transparent. By their very nature, it is not unusual for estimates to need correction, and where appropriate, lease holders will be credited for the changes."
Is it any wonder most sentient beings have little other than scorn for London's jumped-up local council spivs?
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There are some new October figures, courtesy of buy-to-let lenders Paragon Mortgages, and posted, usefully, here (at the time of writing, Paragon haven't made them available on their own website yet). They show return on initial investment (yield plus capital appreciation minus the cost of servicing the mortgage) at 13.28% in London, which is just over a percent higher than the national average. Once again, the terrace house has outperformed flats, semis and detached homes, and provides the highest rental yields.
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It the fifth rise reported in six months by HBOS: 1.2% in November, moving the annual rate of growth to 4.5%. Comment, here. Or press this for the HBOS statement in pdf format.
Nationwide reports - flat [November 29]
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According to reports from those who were there, the judges were left shellshocked by Lynch Associates heavyweight performance at Tuesday's Building Design Young Architect of the Year presentations. Patrick and Claudia Lynch apparently arrived with a builders' van full of models, and peppered their presentation with enough quotations by Oscar Wilde, Joseph Rykwert and Bob Dylan to leave even Alain de Botton scratching his pale head, while fellow judge Graham Morrison was said (by Building Design's Ellis Woodman) to have found the presentation off-putting. Not so off-putting the Lynches didn't win, though. Ironically, their portfolio speaks for itself.
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It's great fodder for the Today Programme's moment of brevity, but I'm not convinced by the Telegraph's tale of UK address snobbery. Basically, the jist is that a survey has revealed that you'll need to find £50,000 more if you want to live in an address with a first line that ends Lane rather than Drive. Okay, that's what the survey shows. But whether that's because people want to live at an address that ends Lane because it ends Lane (the estate agents' interpretation) is highly debatable. Isn't it more likely that village/town/city geography, North-South property price variations combined with road-naming, and differences between old and new naming just conspire to produce results that aren't all even? Wouldn't it be weirder if the average prices of houses on Lanes, Gardens, Roads and Drives all turned out the same? Instead of reasoning... people are prepared to pay more to live on a Lane because they associate it with expensive country cottages, wouldn't it be more sensible to say, house prices on Lanes are higher because Lanes are more likely to consist of expensive country cottages? Or is it just me? I love the bit about Sherborn Lane originally being called Shiteburn Lane, though. Read it and see.
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Thanks to Boris Johnson, I now know what a vitrine is, as in:
If you are anything like me, you can't help salivating when you walk past the glistening vitrines of the estate agents.
 What's more, the sentence suggests I'm something like Boris Johnson, which is surprising and alarming to equal degrees. Johnson's blogging about his own desperate addiction to property porn. It's "rude to discuss property prices", he says (what must he make of the Rat and Mouse?), before turning around a couple of elementary algebraic equations revealing his own recent property profits. The article goes on to illustrate with some force the average non-saving Brit's reliance on bricks-and-mortar to get through the tough times. We have almost twice as much invested in our homes as in our pensions. Of course, they're only worth that if property prices remain at a level that continue to squeeze out first-time buyers (who also aren't saving for their pensions). We've heard it before, I know. But it's put eloquently by Boris, whom we like a whole lot more now that we know the truth about his personal problems with property particulars.
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My studio is in the sitting room, and the white walls are covered in pages ripped out from magazines. The people and the pictures change all the time. Sometimes I have nothing on the walls, and if I get really fed up, I take everything off and just write on the walls.
Not something most landlords would like the look of on a Tenant Assessment Report, is it? But celebrity-obsessed artist Stella Vine loves her fridge-less, curtain-less, bed-less, heat-less, trash-mag-packed life in Bloomsbury and doesn't mind telling the world. Especially when she has a new show starting next week.
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